中国居民间接生活能源消费的结构分解分析

发布时间：2025-01-26 23:11

《中国居民财富报告》- 分析中国理财市场趋势 #生活技巧# #省钱技巧# #金融理财书籍#

摘要

居民生活能源消费可分为直接和间接消费两部分，一般来说，后者远远大于前者。因此，在经济快速发展，能源消费迅猛增长的背景下，分析居民间接生活能源消费的变动趋势及原因，对于寻找节能途径与对策具有重要意义。本文以1987年～2002年为样本期，运用投入产出方法，构建结构分解分析模型，对中国居民间接生活能源消费的增长原因进行了实证分析。结果表明：促使间接生活能源消费增加的因素有居民消费总量增加、消费结构变化、城乡消费比例变化和中间生产技术变化，而起到抑制能源消费增加的因素唯有以直接能源消耗系数大幅下降为标志的节能技术进步。可见，由于我国正值工业化和城市化的中期阶段，居民消费变化和产业结构演进都成为能源消费上升的重要拉动因素，因此必须提倡适度合理的消费方式，促进生活节能；同时加快调整以重化工业为主导的产业结构，发挥结构节能效应。

Abstract

Household energy consumption includes direct and indirect energy consumption, with indirect energy consumption usually higher than direct energy consumption. This paper's analysis indicates that indirect energy consumption of Chinese households is 2～3 times that of direct energy consumption. In the current context of rapid growth in economic development and energy consumption, it is critical to apply an energy-saving approach to analyze household changes in indirect energy consumption and the underlying reasons. Based on energy input-output tables, we constructed an SDA model for 1987～2002 and analyzed trends in indirect household energy consumption. The paper decomposes the increase in indirect energy consumption into five factors: gross consumption, consumption structure, urban-rural proportion of consumption, intermediate input-output coefficient, and direct energy consumption coefficient which captures advances in energy-saving technology. The results indicate that increasing gross consumption is the main reason for growth in indirect household energy consumption, as this factor has the highest contribution value and ratio. Gross consumption's contribution value is more than 100Mtce during both 1987～1992 and 1997～2002, meaning that with all other factors unchanged, the increase in gross consumption would cause an energy consumption increase of more than 100Mtce. At the same time, the consumption structure and urban-rural proportion of consumption also contribute to an increase in indirect household energy consumption. In response to industrialization and urbanization, the structure of consumption shifts from primarily food and clothing to durable commodities, and urban consumption is higher than rural. The other factor promoting growth in indirect energy consumption is the change in the intermediate input-output coefficient, which also has a positive contribution value and ratio, indicating that increases in the proportion of heavy industry also boost energy consumption. Energy-saving technology advancement is the only factor which causes a decline in indirect household energy consumption. For many industries, energy consumption per unit of production is decreasing. As China continues to undergo industrialization and urbanization, shifts in consumption patterns and evolution of industrial structure are important factors affecting energy consumption. We should encourage energy conservation measures and at the same time, adjust the industrial structure to shift from heavy industry to service industries.